The quarterly report of A shares has been basically disclosed. What are the highlights of the quarterly report of listed manufacturing companies?Wintergamesinsaudiarabia? Which sectors have more investment opportunities? Xie Tianhui, manager of Chuangjin Hexin New Materials New Energy Fund, said that the first quarterly report shows that the highlights of listed manufacturing companies are focused on export business. She believes that the market in May is expected, because with the end of the concentrated disclosure of the 2023 annual report and the quarterly report, many concerns about performance have been released, and the release of the new "National Nine articles" is conducive to the more benign development of the capital market. She is more optimistic about the metal plate, the new productivity direction represented by the low-altitude economy and the dividend plate.

1. After the quarterly report has been basically disclosed, can you share the overall situation of the manufacturing industry and what are the bright spots? What are the places that are not as expected?

Xie Tianhui: manufacturing direction, including high-end manufacturing, new materials, power equipment, new energy, etc., the bright spots in the first quarter of this year focused on export business, construction machinery, electricity meters in power equipment, transformers and other industrial products, the business income and profits of the export sector have increased significantly, and the export areas are not limited to Europe and the United States, but also include South America, Africa, the Middle East, Southeast Asia and so on.

In addition, consumer export chains, such as light industry and home appliance exports, also performed well in the first quarter. It can be said that the overall quarterly performance of the export chain is good, which is the bright spot of this quarterly report.

Less than expected, in the field of new energy, the inverter export business, which is given high attention by the market, has not completely finished going to the warehouse in the first quarter, and there are only signs of improvement in sporadic areas. there is a certain gap between investors and investors who expect to finish de-warehousing and resume high-speed growth in the first quarter.

2. What are your forecasts for the performance of listed companies in the next few quarters, and which industries have the potential to achieve higher-than-expected growth in the future?

Xie Tianhui: affected by the Spring Festival, the first quarter is often the off-season for manufacturing enterprises throughout the year, so there is still a lot of room for improvement in the next three quarters compared with the first quarter. In addition, we are firmly optimistic about the sustained recovery of the domestic economy, so we are relatively optimistic about the performance outlook of listed companies for the whole year.

With the upgrading of equipment and the introduction of the trade-in policy for consumer goods, many industries in the manufacturing industry have the potential to exceed expectations in the future, such as cars, home appliances, rail transportation, and construction machinery, especially the "detailed rules for the implementation of Automobile Trade-for-clunkers", which have different support for oil vehicles and electric vehicles, which will effectively boost car sales, and the automobile sector is expected to usher in a situation in which the growth rate of domestic demand is expected to increase and superimpose export resonance.

In addition, we focus on the transition from traditional productivity to new productivity. Take the humanoid robot plate, which was led by Tesla last year, from 0 to 1, and this year it may be from 1 to 10. There are many listed companies involved in the relevant industrial chain, driving the technological progress of reducers, screws, sensors and other links. And many domestic companies are developing their own humanoid robots, which is the industrial trend in the next 2-3 years.

In the field of resources, more and more investors realize that the growth rate of copper supply will slow in the future. under the background of the reshaping of the global supply chain, the scarcity of resource products has become increasingly prominent, and the probability of rising copper prices has increased. the industrial metal plate represented by copper is also expected to have better-than-expected performance.

Since March and April, the A-share repair market is still continuing. With the intensification of overseas disturbance factors, the disclosure of the superimposed one-quarter report is basically over. Can the May market of A shares be expected?

Xie Tianhui: the market as a whole is dominated by defensive dividend style and resource products in the first quarter. On April 26th, the northward inflow of foreign capital reached an all-time high, with an inflow of more than 22 billion in a single day, and the performance of the Hong Kong stock market was also very outstanding. To investigate the reason, we believe that, first, economic fundamentals are recovering, reporting upward profits of many enterprises in the first quarter; second, there have been frequent interactions between China and the United States recently, and market worries about Sino-US relations have eased; in addition, stagflation worries have been caused by the fact that GDP in the United States was not expected in the first quarter, and against this background, some foreign investors have re-started to allocate Chinese assets.

After the concentrated disclosure of the April annual report and the quarterly report, many concerns about performance have been released, and the release of the new "National Nine articles" is conducive to the more benign development of the capital market, and the market is expected in May.

4. Under the stimulation of performance and policies, recent dividends, low-level economy, computing power, precious metals and other sectors have been interpreted in turn. Combined with the disclosure of the quarterly report, which are likely to become the main line of investment this year?

Xie Tianhui: first of all, the above directions are now relatively popular plates, and they all have their own opportunities during the year. Metal plates, arithmetic, low-altitude economy and dividend plates are all likely to become the main lines of investment this year.

We are relatively optimistic about metal plates. On the one hand, the Fed interest rate cut cycle has begun, superimposed geopolitical instability, gold prices are in the upward cycle; on the other hand, in the context of reshaping the global supply chain, the scarcity of resource products has become increasingly prominent, the long-term stability of copper prices is increasing, and the performance of the metal plate is also relatively excellent in the quarterly report, so we are relatively optimistic about the metal plate.

Secondly, we are optimistic about the direction of new quality productivity represented by the low-level economy. Policies to encourage the development of the low-altitude economy have been launched continuously this year, although it is not reflected in the performance in the short term, but the market space driven by the low-level economy is worth imagining. We are also optimistic about other aspects of new quality productivity, such as high-end equipment, new materials, new energy vehicles, digital economy and so on.

The dividend sector performed well in the first quarter and may have increased more in the short term, but it still has allocation value under the repair of economic weakness and the low shock of risk-free interest rates.

5. How to evaluate the risk level of the current market, especially for those companies and industries with poor performance? What other risk factors are worthy of attention in the follow-up?

Xie Tianhui: the current level of market risk is not high, and the valuations of many industries and companies are still relatively low. with the release of the new "National Nine articles", the market risk appetite has rebounded.

　　对业绩不佳的公司和行业，需要分析背后的原因。以电动车的电池材料为例，过往扩产过多、供过于求，造成了产业链最近两年整体调整。此次一季报我们发现，部分龙头公司的产能利用率有了较大幅度提升（表明需求提升），单位盈利处于较低的位置，与此同时，产业链其他公司大多处于盈亏边缘或亏损状态，因而我们可以认为行业已经触底，后续稍有价格变化，即可产生较大业绩弹性。

　　光伏行业情况类似，主产业链的单位盈利在下滑，是因为硅料价格下跌，过往几年扩产过剩等原因造成的，但当前国内外需求依然强劲，产业链扩产有所降速，随着此前扩产的硅料产能在二季度释放，产业链价格逐渐企稳，光伏产业链有望年内触底回升。

　　后续的风险因素，除了我国经济恢复程度外，中美关系、利率和汇率走势等都是我们关注的。